KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgThursday mid morning April 21st

Thursday mid morning April 21st

Good mid to late morning everyone.  I am sitting here looking over the latest data and playing with my son.  He turns two in a couple of weeks, can you believe it?  And now he is crying because he wants to go downstairs.  Maybe the terrible twos are starting, lol.  And the German Shepherd and running around outside barking at the poor little basset hound.  Crazy at the Heady house this morning.  Ok I won't be in the office today.  Brian Davis, our new weekend meteorologist is going on a cruise.  So I will work the weekends for the next two weeks.  So I have today and Monday off to counter those working days.  However, I will stay on top of the weather for you.  So Tyler Daniel will be in filling in for me tonight. 

It has been a fairly nice start to the day, but we will see big changes by the afternoon.  Let me show you our latest interactive radar. 

http://www.koamtv.com/category/191239/sky-watch-interactive-radar

Our latest weathernet titan radar shows the thunderstorms south of us that will back build into Oklahoma over the next couple of hours along a warm front.  The showers and thunderstorms will push north towards us this afternoon.  They will be scattered, but I think most of us will see scattered storms this afternoon.  We could see some heavy amounts of rain with these storms and some hail is also possible.  I think most of these storms will stay just below the severe limit, but a few severe thunderstorm warnings are possible.  This will continue to push through and mainly north of us by evening.  Here is a look at our surface at about 6 PM tonight.

By this time I think most of the thunderstorms will push north of us.  So we will see a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, then a break by evening.

The warm front will lift into the area during the overnight hours tonight.  I think by late evening we will see scattered thunderstorms popping up once again.  Here is a look.

 Now these storms will be around from late evening until late tonight.  We also have a little higher severe threat with these than we will this afternoon.  This will be due to the warm front lifting through the area.  Again I am thinking a wind and hail threat.  However, we could see some very heavy amounts of rain with some areas at 1-2" of rain by Friday morning.

We will see a break in the action tomorrow with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.  However the cold front will roll through late in the afternoon.  Along the cold front we will see showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon with another severe threat.  Let me show you the surface map for tomorrow evening.

 These storms will mainly be after 3pm.  The best chances for thunderstorms will be from a line of Nevada-Chetops-Nowata and south of that.  We will have threats of wind, hail and a few isolated tornadoes. 

The front pushes south on Saturday and stalls about 150 miles to the south.  Thunderstorms will form along the front, but mainly south of the area.  I do think they will be close enough to give our southern counties some showers and thunderstorms.  The front will start to lift back towards the north on Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This will bring back in good chances for thunderstorms and even a severe threat.  Unfortunately we will have good chances for thunderstorms on Easter and a severe threat.  So this will be something to watch closely. 

Another strong upper level wave will roll through on Monday. This will give us good chances for thunderstorms and a severe threat once again. 

Remember I have theories that a pattern dev lopes during the summer months.  This is a recurring cycle that starts in the late summer and lasts until the following fall.  So once you figure this pattern out you can forecast long range very accurately.  My theory is that this years pattern is at about 50 days.  My pattern has produced some very big storm system since last fall.  This puts us at the same point that we where in on about very early March and around January 12th.  I have continued to do research on my theories on my pattern.  I will really look hard here over the next couple of weeks to see what the summer is looking like.  So if we project out a bit, here are the system I see moving in.

Of course the waves we have over the next few days

A system late next week around Friday and Saturday

A strong storm system on the 4th and 5th

A very strong storm system from the 10th-12th

A wave around the 15th

Two waves that will affect us from the 17th-21st. 

So we have a lot to watch over the next month as May is our biggest severe weather month. 

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

Doug Heady

dheady@koamtv.com

April 24th-30th:

We will see the waves lasting into Tuesday morning.  I think we will turn cooler and dry out late Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures will warm back up late in the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.

May (1st-7th):

A mild start to the week with slight thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  A stronger storm system will move in on Wednesday and Thursday(4th & 5th) with severe weather chances.  Cooler and drier as we work towards the weekend.

May (8th-14th):

A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances from Tuesday through Thursday.  This could easily be a severe weather event and needs to be watched.  This should be a pretty strong storm system.  Then a little cooler for the weekend.

May (15th-21st):

Thunderstorm chances return here at the beginning of the week.  We will see a couple of waves giving us chances through Wednesday.  Also another system on Friday and Saturday.