KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSunday May 22nd Severe WX Update

Sunday May 22nd Severe WX Update

     Good Sunday Everyone, Severe Chances are going up this afternoon, so lets get right to it. As you know it has been very warm and humid over the 4 State area today. We have had a strong south wind at 15 to 25 mph and higher at times. The National Weather Service in Springfield has put out the Media Briefing that we see when chances are in the danger zone for severe weather outbreaks. Here is the link below:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=webbriefing

Here is a look at our risks for this afternoon and evening:

Tornado chances can't be ruled out in these storms as well. The main threat will be storms with wind, hail, and Lightning.   Our tornado risk is outlined below:

This map indicates the risk for severe storms in a 25 square mile area. We have about a 10% risk of a thunderstorm containing a tornado in any point within a 25 mile area. This type of approach is given and really helpful because we still do not have the exact science to tell exactly where each storm will develop. Using a lot of Data including soundings from weather balloon launches, we can at least narrow down the general bulls eye areas at the highest risks. If you compare this to making chocolate chip cookies, we then have our flour, sugar, chocolate chips, eggs, etc or the ingredients are there to make the cookies, just as they are for making storms. We will monitor the ingredients closely this evening to make sure the whirly thing does not come through the batter!!

Here is a look at your latest 7-day forecast.

Most of the weekend is looking pretty good.  We will see some additional scattered storms on Sunday afternoon that could be strong to severe.  But the temperatures warm into the 80s for highs.  Our next storm system moves in late Monday through Wednesday.  This will give us additional severe weather chances.  I think Tuesday will be our best chances to see some severe thunderstorms across the area.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

May (29th-June 4th):

I want to start with the holiday weekend.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 28th.  That is something we will have to watch as we have a severe threat.  The rest of the holiday weekend looks pretty good.  Our next big system I am hoping to have it hold off until late Memorial Day or Tuesday.  Thunderstorm chances late Monday through Wednesday with this next storm systems.  We will also see warm temperatures here at the beginning of the week.  A little cooler the second half of the week.  We will see thunderstorm chances from Friday through the weekend with temperatures turning cooler.

Severe threat:  High threat(mainly on Tuesday).  Moderate threat(Friday and Saturday). 

June (5th-11th):

Cool start to the week with a chances for showers on Sunday.  Temperatures warming up for the middle of the week.  Our next system will affect us from Tuesday through Thursday with thunderstorms.  Chances move in again over the weekend. 

Severe threat:  Low(Tuesday-Thursday, and Saturday).

June (12th-18th):

Thunderstorms chances over the weekend and early in the week.  Temperatures warming up for the middle of the week ahead of our next system from Thursday-Saturday.

Severe threat:  Low(Sunday and Monday).  Moderate(Thursday-Saturday).