KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgWednesday Afternoon June 1st

Wednesday Afternoon June 1st

Monitoring some of my favorite weather Data. I had gotten away from my hobby some while unpacking boxes and getting moved in. My normal routine has always been Weather while at work, and weather while at home. Not been so much the case lately, but now I am getting back on track with my generic AWIPs system set back up at home. Managed to get some more of my favorite model sites back on and running.

Let's get on to the weather stuff: A few scattered showers and storms around the viewing area this afternoon. We are in a convergence zone between two big high pressure areas. One to our northeast and one generally off to our southwest. In between these two areas, air collides and we tend to get lift at the surface. Our dewpoints have remained high and we should have just enough surface convergence for storms later. Here is the Rapid Update Cycle Model (AWIPS AIRLAB) showing a few developing areas over the 4 State area.

We certainly have plenty of available energy or CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy at over the area. Currently at around 3000 J/kg. This just gives us a look at how much the air wants to rise and form storms if it is moved by some lifting at the surface.

Lift index is about -6 as well so expect a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for sure. Have a good day.

(Brian)

Doug Heady:

Can you believe it is already June.  That just absolutely blows my mind.  Yes I know I say this at the beginning of each and every month. 

We continue to push right along in our 50 day pattern.  Let me show you where we are at.  Here is a look at today's upper level map.

You can see the upper level wave that is rotating into the northern plains.  This will give us chances for scattered thunderstorms later tonight.  Here is a look back at this part of the cycle at about 50, 100 & 150 days ago.  So you can see this exact system moving through.

You can see how we are right on track with my theories and this pattern.  But we are working into the summer months.  You can see back in late December how strong and deep this system was.  The closer we work towards summer the system becomes weaker and farther north.  We are still in severe weather season over the next few weeks.  I still think we have a few systems that will give us severe thunderstorms.  However, we are about 3/4 of the way through the season.  The next 3 weeks through will still be fairly active. 

We already have scattered thunderstorms that are popping up across the central plains.  Here is the latest interactive radar.

http://www.koamtv.com/category/191239/sky-watch-interactive-radar

As our front continues to stall across the area, I think we could see scattered showers and thunderstorms today.  Now these will be pretty widely scattered, but the ones that do develop could be strong.  There is a very slight chance that we could see a few severe thunderstorms.  This front will hang out on top of us today, then push to our north by Thursday.  This will allow us to heat up more and stay fairly dry into the weekend.

Our next wave will start to affect us during the second half of the weekend and early next week.  This again will give us slight chances for thunderstorms with a slight severe threat.  Now temperatures will stay warm to hot through the period.

Here is a look at your latest 7-day forecast.

Doug

 June (5th-11th):

A warm start to the week with a few waves that will affect us during the week.  This is going to give us at least slight chances for thunderstorms through Thursday.  Also I expect temperatures to be warm to hot through the period.  Additional thunderstorm chances with our next wave moving in over the weekend of the 11th.   

Severe threat:  Low (Sunday-Thursday, Saturday)

June (12th-18th):

Thunderstorm chances of the weekend of the 12th.  Then it looks nice until our next chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday.  A little cooler behind this system for the rest of the week. 

Severe threat:  Low(Sunday), Moderate (Wednesday & Thursday) 

June (19th-25th):

Thunderstorms chances with several wave through the first half of the week.  Temperatures will be mild through the period.  I think our best chances will be on Sunday-Tuesday.  Then additional chances around Friday with warm temps into the weekend.

Severe threat:  Low (Sunday-Tuesday, Friday)

June (26th-July 2nd):

Warm to hot temperatures at the beginning of the week with our next wave that will affect us by the middle of the week.  This will give us chances for scattered thunderstorms.  I think temperatures will stay warm pressing into the holiday weekend.  However, thunderstorm chances will increase again towards the weekend as well.

Severe threat:  Low(Wednesday and Thursday)