KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgThursday Afternoon June 2nd

Thursday Afternoon June 2nd

We woke up to a few showers this morning over mainly the northern portions of our viewing area, with clouds starting off our day.

Here is the Noon Look At Our Downstream Cam Just West Of Joplin:

Today the clouds are slowly thinning out over the area as high pressure builds in from our south. This is one of those days when for what ever reason, you just do not take the weather models as the gospel truth. The high power models have been clearing out the clouds too soon and I really think despite the showing of clearing skies by early noon, we will still keep at least a partly cloudy sky around even into the evening hours today.

Once again, Models are trying to dry out our area completely by around noon today, but a few showers will continue over the western portions of our viewing areas through late evening. Eureka, Ottawa, and the Valley Falls area can continue to see a few spotty showers over the area with none of the activity being severe.

We are still very humid over the area and even with the cloud cover it will feel very muggy and hot out there today. Here is a current AWIPS map showing the very humid conditions. I know to an untrained eye this may look confusing, but use the little round chart in the upper corner and it indicates color shadings for humidity. Notice we are quite high over the area.

 The air over us is a little more stable than yesterday, so I really do not expect any severe storms today. With that being said, there could be a couple of storms to our north later today along and north of Valley Falls and Odessa. If traveling north just be aware. Still nothing that really supports anything major in the line of severe weather.

Here is a look at our current cape, remember, this is just a map that shows us how much the air wants to rise (when air wants to rise due to moisture and heat, thunderstorms are more easily formed). We are about 1500 J/kg lower today over most of the area with higher amounts to our north.

Here is a look at the areas of most concern today and we are not included. Should be a relatively calm rest of the day for most of us with a few showers over the northern portions of our viewing area.

A quick mention about the northeast tornadoes yesterday. One reason, we have seen more quiet conditions here in Joplin/ Pittsburg the last couple of days,  is that if you look at the following map, you will notice the jet stream is far to our north. The upper level winds have lots of influence on tornado development. Notice the blue areas showing the strongest upper level winds over Canada and curling into the northeast. That curling of the Jet stream can greatly enhance thunderstorm and tornado development so it is no wonder severe weather was happening in the northeast. It is normal for our upper level jet winds to migrate more north this time of year. This is a transition between warm air and cold air. As the northern hemisphere is tilted more towards the sun and thus Leads to summer, the warm are moves north, cold air retreats north and the jet stream tends to move further north as well.

Have a great rest of the day everyone!

Meteorologist Doug Heady:

Good Thursday morning everyone.  I am proud to say that everyone has been accounted for from the devastating May 22nd, 2011 Joplin tornado.  It is just to bad we lost 134 people, 8000, houses or structures and over 300 business.  However, I think Joplin is very strong and will come back better than ever.  Those 134 people will always be honored as Joplin citizens. 

We know it has been an active severe weather season.  We had a very active winter as well with the massive historic blizzard across the area.  Now a massive historic tornado in Joplin.  This is all due to my theories on a 50 day pattern.  It has been very active and it has to do with the pattern that we are in this year.  The good news is we are entering the summer months and we will begin to calm down a bit.  However, I do fear a very hot summer with the second half of the summer being very dry.  Also we will enter a new pattern in late summer and early fall.  Time will tell if it is less active, as active or more active than what we have seen over the past 9 months. 

But I will tell you that the next 7 days look pretty good.  Yes it will be hot and humid, but not much action with thunderstorms.  I have updated the long range forecast below so make sure you check it out.  Also we will get into exactly what I expect for June on my next blog.

Here is a look at your latest 7-day forecast.

Doug

 June (5th-11th):

I expect to see the warm to hot temperatures continuing.  We will have very slight chances for thunderstorms early in the week.  Then again better chances late in the week towards the weekend.

Severe threat:  Low(Sunday and Monday, Thursday-Saturday)

June (12th-18th):

Thunderstorm chances of the weekend of the 12th.  Then it looks nice until our next chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday.  A little cooler behind this system for the rest of the week. 

Severe threat:  Low(Sunday), Moderate (Wednesday & Thursday) 

June (19th-25th):

Thunderstorms chances with several wave through the first half of the week.  Temperatures will be mild through the period.  I think our best chances will be on Sunday-Tuesday.  Then additional chances around Friday with warm temps into the weekend.

Severe threat:  Low (Sunday-Tuesday, Friday)

June (26th-July 2nd):

Warm to hot temperatures at the beginning of the week with our next wave that will affect us by the middle of the week.  This will give us chances for scattered thunderstorms.  I think temperatures will stay warm pressing into the holiday weekend.  However, thunderstorm chances will increase again towards the weekend as well.

Severe threat:  Low(Wednesday and Thursday)