KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgMonday Morning Update

Monday Morning Update

Happy Monday Everyone,

We are going to be hot and dry today with highs in the low 90s. Moderate chances will exist overnight for severe weather so we will keep up the watch and warning map below. I have also have put together a graphic to give you an Idea (Yes, in case you have not noticed I am a computer nerd and graphics guru) of exactly what is going to play out with this weather event. Here is it below:

Once again, this is a 4am snapshot so it does not take into account that the storms will be approaching the western areas by as early as 10 PM.  There is also a chance that we can get a few scattered storms ahead of the main system a little earlier than models predict, but this does give a good idea about what will happen. I have also placed the Storms Prediction Center outlook in the background. You can see the yellow/orange areas are in the slight range (that almost always means at least a few severe storms in the area here) and the Red area to the north over northern Missouri is at a Moderate Risk for severe weather (This is usually very dangerous and includes better chances of tornadoes). We still get tornadoes in the slight risk areas as well, but the ingredients are lower for tornadoes in the slight risk areas. A cold front moving into this warm unstable air will no doubt produce some big storms over the area Monday night into Tuesday. The good news is that we will see a good cool down as seen in the 7 Day below, after the front passes through.

Watches and Warnings will be displayed here:

 Here is the current regional radar in motion:

Here is a look at the setup for Monday night into Tuesday, We will have this very warm and unstable air mass building over the area today and Monday. A cold front will swing down into the region bringing much cooler temperatures this week along with the chance for severe weather again on Monday night into Tuesday Morning. These storms will pack a punch as they move over the area with the threat being large hail, damaging winds, and lightning. We will have a return of some marginal shear and upper level winds so a tornado can't be ruled out. Here is the surface map showing a cold front that will bring the storms with it Monday night into Tuesday.

Here is a look at your latest 7-day forecast.

I will do a more extensive blog with a pattern and long range update.  The last one I did I messed up on one of my maps and want to make sure I get that fixed.  Have a great Saturday everyone.

Doug

June (19th-25th):

Warm to hot temperatures at the beginning of the week with chances for thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see a much stronger wave that will deepen across the central plains.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the rest of the week with mainly dry conditions.

Severe threat:  slight(Monday, Wednesday & Thursday), moderate(Tuesday) 

June (26th-July 2nd):

Temperatures warming right back up at the beginning of the week.  I think we will be mainly dry until thunderstorms chances for the middle of the week.  Then we should be mainly dry late in the week and towards the weekend.  Temperatures will stay warm all week if not hot.

Severe threat:  slight(Tuesday-Thursday) 

July (3rd-9th):

 A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances returning for the second half of the weekend and the holiday.  We will see a brief break, but then chances return late in the week.  I think this will be another set-up where a front just hangs out near us giving us those thunderstorm chances.  I also expect temperatures to stay on the warm to hot side through the week.

Severe threat:  Slight(Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday)  

July (10th-16th):

I think most of this week will be on the hot side.  We will see slight chances for thunderstorms mid and late week as a frontal boundary hangs out near the 4-state area.

Severe threat:  Slight(Wednesday-Friday)