KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgMonday July 4th Update

Monday July 4th Update

Posted By Meteorologist Brian Davis:

Happy July 4th Everyone!

A slow moving front in the area kicks off some showers and storms Monday:

Another typical summer type chance of storms today. Mainly Isolated storms (some will get a storm, some will see blue skies only). A stationary front is located over the area and will provide the area with a weak boundary between some slightly cooler and slightly warmer and moist air. Along the general area we will see a few storms pop up this evening. Tornado chance is very low, mainly just isolated storms with a couple that will likely contain some hail, gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Science does not currently allow for us to pinpoint exactly to the minute what areas will get the storms and when. Here is what we do know with current science:

* Jet stream is mainly along and north of us, so with a lack of this jet, the tornado threat tends to be much lower (This feature greatly effects tornado and severe storms development because of divergence, convergence, shear and many other factors).

* We do have some hot humid air over our area so at least a few local storms can be expected.

* Looking at the mid and upper level temperatures, hail will be possible in some storms.

* Storms will be slow movers due to lack of upper level winds to steer them along.

* The main wind threat with these type of storms is the winds produced mainly as they just start to weaken because the heavy cooled air that comes rushing down to the surface (can cause brief damage).

* Lightning is usually abundant in summertime storms due to the high growth of the anvil and the heat that aids to the electric energy.

* High powered models tend to "try" to predict where exactly the storms will break the cap and form. They are helpful, but do not always accurately predict the exact storm locations and types. Here is a look at a snapshot of where the high powered model shows development today between 5 and 8pm. This is just a few things we consider as meteorologists when forecasting. Have a safe Happy Holiday!

Doug's Friday Post Up Just In Case You Missed It, Good Stuff: (B.D.)

Lets quickly look back at June.  It will go down as one of the hottest June's on record around this area.  I don't know the exact stats yet, but easily in the top 10 hottest June's.  Here are some stats for you.

Our average high temperatures in June was:  92.1 degrees

June average should be:  85 degrees

We had 1.02" of rain

We average 4.67" of rain in June.

This isn't a good trend for the rest of the summer.  In fact I think July and August both will be below average rain with above average temperatures.  So get ready for a hot and fairly dry summer. 

We do have slight chances for a few pop up thunderstorms over the holiday weekend.  A cold front will try to work south into our northern counties on Saturday afternoon.  This could trigger off a few scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.  However, they won't be very widespread.  Also on Sunday and Monday we will see a slight chance for a few pop up storms with the heating of the day.  But again this doesn't look like a widespread event.  So if you have outdoor activities planned over the holiday weekend, keep them.  However it will be very hot.  Highs into the mid to upper 90s each day so drink the fluids if you will be outside. 

I don't see anything more than a slight chance for pop up storms over the next week.  Also temperatures will stay hot with highs into the 90s.  Here is a look at watches and warning below in case you have travel plans.  Plus the radar and you 7-day forecast.  Also you month long forecast through the month of July.

Doug

 Any Watches and Warnings will be displayed here:

 Here is the current regional radar in motion:

Here is a look at your latest 7-day forecast.

We continue to move right along in the 50 day pattern.  My theories are that the next cycle will begin in about a month.  However, this pattern will hold until the middle of fall.  So the new cycle starts before the pattern.  I will prove all of this to you when I get some time.  Plus I will show you all the research I have done to prove this pattern.  But for now we stand in the 50 day cycle with the same pattern we have been in for about 9 months now.  Here is a look at the upper level map for today.

You can see the huge upper level high over us right now.  The storm system out to our west won't be able to break down the ridge.  It will just rotate around the ridge into the northern plains.  This is very typical for this time of the year.  Lets go back 51 days.

 You can see the same system out to our west, but the ridge over us wasn't as strong.  So storm systems could break down the ridge.  Lets go back another 50 days.  Here is March 20th

Back in March the same system was out west and you can see the ridge is much weaker at that time.  So we are definitely in the summer mode.  I am concerned with how hot and dry this summer will most likely be.   If you missed my blog the other day about the AMS conference, I will leave it up on here for another day or two.  Below this is your long range forecast through the month of July.

 I still would like to tell you about the AMS conference that I went to last week.  The AMS conference is held each year for meteorologist that have the Certified AMS seal of approval.  It is by far the hardest seal to get and I am very proud to say that I have the seal.  I got it many years ago before I actually graduated college when I was 21 years old.  You have to have a degree in meteorology to be able to apply for the seal.  On top of that, you have to even take certain classes in college to even be considered for it.  So if some colleges don't offer certain classes, you can't get your seal.  So you take an extremely hard written test.  If you pass it then you send in three consecutive days of tapes into a board of meteorologist that grade you in several different categories.  If you pass that, then you get your seal. 

So the AMS has a yearly conference with people who have the seal.  We go and have meetings and presentations on different weather subjects.  Well last Thursday I was on a panel for about 2 hours discussing tornadoes.  It was a chief in Wichita and Tulsa with me.  A guy form the NWS and a lady from the emergency management from North Carolina.  So during the first half hour, we us 5 discussed what we think works and doesn't work with tornado warnings.  The other 2 or 300 hundred meteorologist observed.  Then for the last hour and a half, the other meteorologist would throw out questions and would discuss them in depth.  The biggest topics where do viewers pay attention to tornado warnings?   How do we do cut-in in different markets?  Do the sirens help?  How do we extend tornado warning lead time?  How were the warnings with the Joplin tornado.  Should we do cut-ins for doppler radar indicated tornadoes?  So lets go over these.

Do viewers pay attention to tornado warnings?  Well in our area I think majority of people do.  However, a lot of people go outside and look when they should be taking cover.  I know that 9 our of 10 times during a tornado warning you don't get hit by a tornado.  However, you have to think each and every time is that 1 time that it can hit you.  It is better to be safe than sorry.  But unfortunately, a lot of people say "well we have warnings all the time.  It isn't that big of a deal"  But it is a big deal if you are that one time.

How do each markets do cut-ins?  Here is my policy.  If we have severe thunderstorm warnings with just some hail, I usually let the bug in the corner of the screen take care of it.  These are severe thunderstorms, but they aren't life threatening.  Now if we have severe thunderstorm warnings with major wind damage, then I do cut-ins usually during commercial breaks.  Doppler radar indicated tornado warnings.  I usually also do cut-ins during commercial breaks.  But if we have funnel clouds or a tornado on the ground, then I go wall to wall with our coverage.

Do the sirens help?  I think they do. However a lot of people don't know what they mean.  In the Joplin tornado they went of twice.  They went off twice because of two separate warnings.  But some people thought that the second siren was an all clear, and that wasn't the case.  Also different people pull the sirens in different areas.  So the bottom line is, all of the emergency management crews have to be on the same page on how and when the siren goes off.  It should only go off when a tornado warning is in affect.

How do we extend tornado warning time?  Well the warnings have been getting great lead time over the past 15 to 20 years because of doppler radar.  However, 90% of those doppler radar indicated tornadoes don't produce tornadoes.  So then a lot of people start to ignore them.  The warning time has to get better.  The goal is 1 hour of lead time.  However, when I heard this I just don't see how that is possible when in an hour period a storm can blow up and produce a massive tornado.  So if a warning came out 1 hour prior to that, there would be nothing out there.  However, that is what the National Weather Service says they want to do.  I think that is great, but the chances of that occurring in my eyes right now, is very slim.  Maybe some day they can do it.  But we are so far from that right now it shouldn't even be brought up.

How were the warnings in the Joplin tornado?  Well the first warning came out at 5:09 for northern Jasper county.  That cell didn't produce a tornado, but it did have a doppler radar rotation with it.  The second warning came out at 5:17.  This was for the track of the tornado, but still the leading cell.  The actual tornado popped with a cell the blew around 5:30.  This cell merged with the first cell and became the dominant cell.  The tornado touched down at 5:41.  However, I think from reliable sources it touched down a few minutes earlier.  Now the warning was out for that first cell. But with the new cell that blew up later, it had a warning later than that 5:17 mark. Now this is going strictly by what I saw when I was on air through the event.  Also do to the time log we have on our live coverage of the warnings and the tornado.  However, the Joplin tornado has been said to have a 24 minute warning.  I guess it did if you consider the first initial warning in that area at 5:17pm.  But the 5:17pm warning was for the front part of the cell, so it just depends on how you look at it.  We had rotation the developed near Galena and push east.  The rotation developed again in that same spot and dropped SE, then east through town and then took the right turn back to the SE.  So the west side of the city, that tornado could have caught a some people off guard.  At least on the east side of the city, there was a decent amount of warning.  Even though the 5:17 warning didn't produce a tornado, that probably helped people become aware of what was going on outside and probably saved many life's.  But the warning time needs to be much greater than what we had.  Especially in areas where the tornado dropped.  The west side of the city just happened to have a monster maxi wedge tornado develop right on top of them.  I think all of the TV meteorologist, NWS and emergency management did all they could on this day.  But we have to get the lead time on warnings much better than what we had on this day. 

Should we do cut-ins for Doppler Radar indicated tornadoes?  I think we should because there is a chance that a Doppler Radar indicated rotation could drop a tornado.  But I think it has to be addressed differently.  You need to let people know we have a dangerous storm that could form into a tornado, but there isn't one at this time.  Now when we have funnel clouds and tornadoes, then the coverage really has to step up to warn people that this is the real deal.

One other topic that came up was the digital age.  Lets look around here.  If you have Direct TV, you can't get KOAMTV & FOX14.  I am hoping that this will change soon.  Also if you have an antenna, you can get our station in the counties that our on the edge of the viewing area.  Lets say you live in Sedan, instead of Wichita you would be able to pick us up.  Thankfully we livestream everything now days.  But one big problem is you get rain fade if you have satellite tv.  We do and I would switch to cable, but our cable company doesn't carry the NFL network and the E channel.  I can't live without the NFL network and my wife can't live without the E channel.  So we stick with Dish.  So during severe weather, it is smart to have internet on your phone or computer so you can see facebook and twitter updates, also live streaming.

If you have any questions or thoughts on all of this just let me know. 

July (3rd-9th):

Looks like a hot start to the week with temperatures staying above average.  We will have slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday.  This should drop a cold front through that will allow are temperatures to be more comfortable for the second half of the week.  Additional thunderstorm chances move in by the weekend.

Severe threat:  Low(Tuesday, Saturday)

 July (10th-16th):

A warm start to the week with chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Then a little stronger system will affect us around Thursday and Friday with a little better chances for rain.  Temperatures will be warm all week long.

Severe threat:  Low(Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday) 

 July (17th-23rd):

A hot week with just slight chances for rain on Wednesday and Thursday.

Severe threat:  Low(Wednesday-Thursday)

July (24th-30th):

Another hot week and mainly dry.   Slight chances for rain on Sunday and then again by the weekend.

Severe threat:  Low(Sunday, Friday, Saturday)