KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSunday Evening August 7th

Sunday Evening August 7th

Severe storms will continue to break out mainly to our north today from Kansas City to just north of Nevada and Iola, with a few of these storms making it into our viewing area. Places like Iola over to Nevada need to pay close attention as early as this evening as some storms will continue to approach you from the north. Most of these storms will stay north but we will have to watch closely as I think at least a couple will make it into our immediate areas later this evening into sundown. The northeast portions of our region are under a severe thunderstorm watch. Here is the watches and warnings map below (Dark Yellow Are Severe Storm Warnings, Light Yellow Is Severe Storm Watch Areas):

Here are some general target times I am seeing for severe storms (we could also have storms outside this window but you can expect more storms in the area around these times).

*A few scattered storms Sunday mainly in the heat of the day -afternoon and evening/ Severe Chances with gusty wind, lightning, and Hail.

*Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough and cold front will advect (move) over the area/ Fair Chances For A Few Scattered Severe Storms With Mainly Gusty Wind, Lightning, and Hail Being A Threat.

*Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another disturbance will move through the area bringing more abundant storms and a slight chance of severe storms.

The Severe Weather Areas Map Is Also Located Below:

Here is the local radar:

If you want a closer look, check out our interactive radar.  You can see any warnings that are issued.

http://www.koamtv.com/category/191239/sky-watch-interactive-radar

A look at our severe chances map for Sunday/Monday, Chances are slight but remember, the SPC is very conservative in the approach so this "Slight" usually means at least a few severe storms:

A look at your latest 7-day forecast.

Here is a look at this ridge breaking down next week.  Lets take a look.

This shows up the upper level wind flow.  I am showing you this because I want you to see where the ridge is.  The circle(upper level high) is down around Arizona.  This is for next Wednesday and shows the ridge breaking down.  This means that we will allow cold fronts to pass through and cool us down with better chances for showers and thunderstorms.  So I expect pretty good chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  We will even have a slight threat for severe thunderstorms.   

Here is the other good news.  This front should push far enough south to give us a nice break from the heat.  I expect temperatures to be much cooler from about Tuesday through the weekend.  We will start to warm back up over the weekend, but it will be gradual.  Also as the warm up begins, we will see chances for thunderstorms over the weekend of the 13th and 14th as the front lifts back to the north.  Those chances will stick around into the early the following week. 

We will see another break down in the ridge around the last weekend of the month.  That also could give us a nice cool down with chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Besides that, we are going to have to deal with the heat. 

Now remember this is all off my theories on a pattern that develops in the fall.  My beliefs are that this past year we have been in a 50 day cycle with-in this pattern.  I found this pattern back in 1999 when I was in college.  I have worked very hard on developing this pattern with another meteorologist (Gary Lezak).  Him and I continue to work on our theories to better this pattern.  Now my beliefs are that our new cycle is starting right now.  So our new cycle is getting going in this old pattern that we have been in since last October.  So this cycle will be the key to the new pattern that will start in just under 2 months.  Usually the cycle length ranges between 42-65 days.  It will take a few months for me to figure out the new cycle length. 

I have had a lot of questions about the winter.  Everyone wants to know what to expect because we are seeing record heat right now.  We will get into that with my next blog.

Doug

August 11th-13th:

We should get a pretty decent cold front to roll through.  This is going to give us chances for scattered thunderstorms and cooler temperatures.  We could have highs in the range of 15-20 degrees cooler than what we have seen lately.  Rain chances will be on Thursday and then again by the weekend.

Severe threat:  Moderate(Thursday)/Low(Saturday)

AAugust 14th-20th:

With our front lift back to the north at the beginning of the week, we will see slight chances for thunderstorms early in the week. Then I think the rest of the week will be mainly dry.  We will see warm temperatures early in the week.  Then back to the hot to extremely hot temperatures for the rest of the week.

Severe threat:  Slight(Sunday-Tuesday)

August 21st-27th:

Another fairly hot week across the area.  I do think the temperatures will be a little cooler as we work towards the weekend as a front plays havoc with the area.  This will give us chances for scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday through Saturday.

Severe threat:  Slight(Tuesday-Saturday)

August 28th-31st:

Back to hot to extremely hot and dry.

Severe threat:  None