KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSunday Aug. 28th

Sunday Aug. 28th

Good Day Everyone,

Here is what is left of Irene. She will mainly be a rain maker from here on out and become extra tropical meaning a standard basic low pressure area with more of a cold core center verses warm tropical core. She is working only off momentum right now because there is not much left to fuel her. It takes about 79.7 water in the ocean to sustain a good tropical system and not only is Irene over cooler water, her main circulation of what once was the eye is over cool land. Irene will soon die out over the cool waters of the north Atlantic.

Below is a look at the radar as well, I think we will see a few showers and storms over the area overnight and into Monday. I really do not anticipate any severe storms at this point. This week will be a hot one but as we move along into September, cooler temperatures are on the way.

(Brian)

Doug Heady:

Irene is now on a northly track and will actually start to turn off to the northeast.  I still think she will skirt the coast causing heavy rains, high sea surge and gusty winds at hurricane force.

Here is a look at the surface map for us by evening.

So we have high pressure in charge and it looks great.  Now this front will fall apart and start to lift back to the northeast later tonight and tomorrow.  So temperatures will heat up again for Friday and early Saturday.  However, another front slides back south late Saturday.  Now I don't see much moisture with it.  But will drop our temps a hair for the weekend. 

Our next decent shot for rain will be on Monday as our next cold front try's to work in.  Will it pass through is the big question.  I will keep you updated.

Here is a look at your latest radar.

This means temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Thursday compared to today.  However, lower 90s is still hot of course.  Then we start to heat back up as we work towards the weekend.

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

Down the road:

Our 2010 and 2011 pattern has now pretty much come to an end.  Remember my theories are that a pattern is fully in place around October 10th of each year.  This pattern lasts for about 10 months and then morphs into the new pattern.  Within each years pattern, we have a recurring cycle that takes place.  I have gone back and studied each years pattern back to about 1950.  So over 61 year span, the average cycle length is about 53 days.  But I was finding some cycles as short at 38 and as long as 71 days.  But majority of years fall in the 45-60 day period. 

So if we look back at this past years pattern, it has been a wild one.  We saw a mild and dry fall(hints to what we have been seeing this summer).  A very cold winter with a couple big snows.  Of course you remember getting nearly 2 feet of snow from our Feb. 1st storm system.  Then a very active severe weather season with a lot of rain.  And of course the topper of the May 22nd Joplin EF-5 tornado.  I still have a little hard time with that tornado.  It is the deadliest tornado in modern history.  The most that have occurred since tornado warnings have been issued.  I am not sure I like being connected to that as I was on air during the event.  However, I feel like I did all that I could do.  Now we have had one of the hottest and driest summers on record.  I am ready for the new pattern. 

So over the next 6 weeks we are going from old to new.  I can still forecast off of the old pattern as it is still the dominant one.  But it is fading fast and the new cycle is already in place.  I just won't know what the new cycle is until we go through it at least one time.  The new pattern has also already started, but it won't be fully in place until around October 10thish.  So am I very excited to see what the weather does for the next 8-12 weeks to see exactly what the winter will be like.  I have had a ton of people ask what the winter will be like.  I just don't know yet because that pattern isn't in place.  I will start getting a good handle on it here in about 8 weeks.  I will also try to project out to the spring and next summer for you.  My gut says that the winter will be average winter or a little worse, but that is just my gut.  I have no evidence to support that.  So I am very excited to see how this new pattern forms over the next several weeks. 

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next week:

We will have a cold front that will try to push into the area.  It will actually stall near us, but give us chances for showers and thunderstorms.  The best chances look to be on Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will mainly be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  Temperatures warm back up a bit for the rest of the week.  Next chance for thunderstorms will by Friday and Saturday.

Severe threat:  Slight(Monday & Tuesday, Friday & Saturday)

September 4th-10th:

We will continue to see slight chances for thunderstorms through the holiday weekend.  Temperatures will be warm as well through the weekend and early in the week.  Looks like we will heat up by the middle of the week ahead of our next wave that will give us chances for thunderstorms by Friday and Saturday.

Severe threat:  Slight(Monday, Friday & Saturday)

September 11th-17th:

Temperatures look to be a little cooler over the weekend of the 11th.  We will see a slow warming trend through the week.  Chances for thunderstorms by the middle of the week and then again the following weekend. 

Severe threat:  Slight(Tuesday & Wednesday, Saturday)

September 18th-24th:

Chances for thunderstorms at the beginning of the week.  Also we will see temperatures cooling back down behind this system.  Looks like we should see nice temperatures most of the week being on the mild side.  Chances for thunderstorms return by the weekend.

Severe threat:  Slight(Monday, Friday & Saturday)