KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgLabor Day Blog Update Sept 4 & 5th

Labor Day Blog Update Sept 4 & 5th

Temperatures will continue to drop behind the front that moved through last night. Expect some great temperatures for Labor day with highs in the Mid 70s.

Gusty winds will be a bit of a problem with north winds generally around 7 to 10 mph and Gusting up to 21 mph at times so hold down the paper plates, or do what I do and put plenty of BBQ on them so the plate will not blow away! LOL!.

A Jacket? Yep, you will probably need a long sleeve shirt of light Jacket if you plan to be out late as temperatures drop into the upper 40s Labor Day night into Tuesday. B.D.

Here is a look at your latest radar.

Temperatures will stay hot over the next few days.  Here is a look at the surface map for today.

We are on the south side of the warm front which will keep us pretty hot for the next couple days.  Now we will see some changes by the weekend.  A cold front will try to push in on Saturday.  Now this front will put the breaks on and stay just north of us.  We will see just a very slight chance for a storm on Saturday.  Now on  Sunday we will see some bigger changes.  Here is look.

You can the strong upper level wave diving into the Great Lakes.  This upper level wave will drop through a fairly strong cold front.  Right now it looks to be around Sunday morning.  Also this should give us some pretty good chances for rain.  Here is a look at precip totals for Sunday.

The cooler temperatures should stick around most of next week.  I am thinking mainly highs into the lower to middle 80s at this point in time.

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

Down the road:

Our 2010 and 2011 pattern has now pretty much come to an end.  Remember my theories are that a pattern is fully in place around October 10th of each year.  This pattern lasts for about 10 months and then morphs into the new pattern.  Within each years pattern, we have a recurring cycle that takes place.  I have gone back and studied each years pattern back to about 1950.  So over 61 year span, the average cycle length is about 53 days.  But I was finding some cycles as short at 38 and as long as 71 days.  But majority of years fall in the 45-60 day period. 

So if we look back at this past years pattern, it has been a wild one.  We saw a mild and dry fall(hints to what we have been seeing this summer).  A very cold winter with a couple big snows.  Of course you remember getting nearly 2 feet of snow from our Feb. 1st storm system.  Then a very active severe weather season with a lot of rain.  And of course the topper of the May 22nd Joplin EF-5 tornado.  I still have a little hard time with that tornado.  It is the deadliest tornado in modern history.  The most that have occurred since tornado warnings have been issued.  I am not sure I like being connected to that as I was on air during the event.  However, I feel like I did all that I could do.  Now we have had one of the hottest and driest summers on record.  I am ready for the new pattern. 

So over the next 6 weeks we are going from old to new.  I can still forecast off of the old pattern as it is still the dominant one.  But it is fading fast and the new cycle is already in place.  I just won't know what the new cycle is until we go through it at least one time.  The new pattern has also already started, but it won't be fully in place until around October 10thish.  So am I very excited to see what the weather does for the next 8-12 weeks to see exactly what the winter will be like.  I have had a ton of people ask what the winter will be like.  I just don't know yet because that pattern isn't in place.  I will start getting a good handle on it here in about 8 weeks.  I will also try to project out to the spring and next summer for you.  My gut says that the winter will be average winter or a little worse, but that is just my gut.  I have no evidence to support that.  So I am very excited to see how this new pattern forms over the next several weeks. 

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next week:

We will see the chances for thunderstorms on Sunday with the cold front dropping through the area.  After that I think we will be mainly dry until slight rain chances the following weekend.  Temperatures will be mild through most of the week.  We will see a slow warming trend toward the weekend.

Severe threat:  Slight(Sunday)

September 11th-17th:

Slight chances for rain on Sunday as another cold front works through.  This should drop our temperatures off again by Monday.  We will continue to see mild temperatures through the middle of the week.  As numerous waves rotate through, I will keep the rain chances in the forecast from Sunday through Wednesday.  Temperatures will warm up a bit towards the weekend with rain chances increasing again late in the week.

Severe threat:  Slight(Tuesday, Wednesday & Friday, Saturday)

September 18th-24th:

Temperatures look to be a little cooler over the weekend of the 11th.  We will see a slow warming trend through the week.  Chances for thunderstorms by the middle of the week and then again the following weekend. 

Severe threat:  Slight(Sunday, Monday & Friday, Saturday)

September 25th-October 1st:

A cool start to the week with a few showers.  Then nice mild temperatures for most of the week with chances for rain again mainly late in the week.

Severe threat:  Slight(Thursday & Friday)