KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSunday 9-11 Update

Sunday 9-11 Update

Hello Everyone,

A quick update,

Say Goodbye to the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Lee. We are now under the influence of high pressure and will see a warming trend into the start of the work week. A strong cold front will follow on Tuesday night bringing another big drop in temperatures again by mid week. (see 7 Day Below). I hope all are having a good day. Please know that Doug and I share your thoughts and prayers on this special but sad day!  B.D.

Current Radar:

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

 I will update the long range forecast this evening.  I meant to do it with this blog, but left my notes at work.  Now when we look at the pattern, we are seeing huge changes taken place.  Remember my theories are that a pattern sets up each and every fall.  This pattern is fully in place around October 10th.  Then I find the recurring cycle with in that pattern.  That is always the tricky part.  However, I expect this years cycle to fall between 44 and 56 days. 

I believe that the 2011-2012 pattern is already in place.  Let me explain what my thinking is.  The 2010-2011 pattern was the dominant pattern from last October until late July or early August.  From early August until now, we I have been watching the old pattern fading out and the new pattern fading in.  This new pattern will be completely faded in here in about 4 weeks.  I have already noticed some big changes.  While I can still see the old cycle of 50 days, the storm systems aren't acting nearly the same as they have been over the past year.  Also I am seeing a returning ridge trying to develop across portions of the western lower 48 that hasn't been there in the past.  Yes, we had a ridge in this last pattern, but not in the spot that I am seeing it now.  So the bottom line is we are well on our way into the new 2011-2012 pattern. 

Finding the cycle length is very hard.  In fact I believe it can already be found.  However, what makes this so hard this time of the year is that the Jet Stream hasn't been very strong.  Just now is it starting to get stronger.  Because it has been very weak over the past few months, it is hard to spot a new cycle.  I will continue to work on it and let you know.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next Thursday-Saturday:

We will continue with the warm temperatures and thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.  Right now Saturday is looking pretty good.

Severe threat:  Slight(Thursday and Friday)

September 18th-24th:

We should start the week with warm temperatures and rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Behind this system we should cool down a bit for Monday and Tuesday.  Then mainly mild temperatures the rest of the week with our next chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

Severe threat:  Slight(Sunday, Monday & Thursday, Friday)

September 25th-October 1st:

The first half of the week will be mild.  With a mid week storm system we will see temperatures cooling down for late week and the weekend.  Also rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 

Severe threat:  Slight(Wednesday & Thursday)