KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSaturday Oct. 1st

Saturday Oct. 1st

Good Saturday Everyone.  Another great weather week ahead. We are under the influence of a strong high pressure system and it is not going anywhere anytime soon. This will mean a pattern of Sunny Skies and Dry Weather. Temperatures will gradually warm, but only to the low 80s by mid week. Until then, enjoy low to mid 70s for this weekend. I have the response below about how fog forms when it is above freezing.

Current Radar:

Friday: What is La-Nina? http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html

Saturday: How does frost form when it is above freezing? On clear calm nights, frost can form as temperatures right near the ground actually can drop to freezing briefly even when the ambient temperature is above freezing. This is because of radiational cooling, evapotranspiration, and evaporational cooling. We have to measure the air temperature somewhere, but that measurement is only in one spot, about 5 to 6 feet above the main ground. Right near the ground, because cold air sinks, we can see cooler temperatures than what is recorded just above the ground. Here is a good link from the guy I learned a lot about weather from: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/5/

Brian.

Doug Continues From Thursday: 

http://www.koamtv.com/category/191239/sky-watch-interactive-radar

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

We do have chances for thunderstorms late next week and next weekend.  I will get into this in detail later today.

My theories and beliefs are that a pattern sets up each and every fall.  This pattern is a yearly that pattern that is unique each and every year.  Plus it sets up each and every year.  I have been working on this pattern since 2000 when I found it in college.  Plus I have been working on it with Gary Lezak (Chief Meteorologist at NBC Action News in Kansas City).  Gary and I both have put in a ton of research on this and have been developing it further each and every year.  So I did find out a lot in last years pattern that will help me over the next coming year.  So here is the breakdown.  The 2010-2011 pattern was completely set around the 2nd week of October last year.  With in the pattern, we had a recurring cycle of 50 days over the past year.  In late July the 50 day cycle starting changing into the new cycle.  I believe this new cycle is already in place.  I just have to figure it out.  It is hard to figure out because the 2010-2011 pattern has been slowing morphing into the new 2011-2012 pattern.  So this pattern is almost set.  The goal now is see how this new pattern acts.  Also find out what the new cycle length will be in this new pattern. Now this pattern is influenced by other patterns and cycles that go on in the northern Hemisphere.  Again this year, it looks like we will be in a weak La Nina.  Because La Nina influences the pattern, it makes me think the cycle will be closer to that 50 day mark once again.  Most likely it will fall between 45-55 days.  I can see some evidence of that already, but you have to be careful not to get it confused with last years cycle.  Once I get a full grasp on this over the next several weeks, I will let you know what I am thinking for the rest of the fall and winter months. 

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next Wednesday-Saturday:

Temperatures warm up at the beginning of the week.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing by Thursday.  The best chances will be on Friday and Saturday.

Severe threat:  Slight(Friday)

October 9th-15th:

A cool start to the week, but temperatures will be up and down through the week.  We will see our next wave on Monday and Tuesday with rain chances.  This should cool us back down for mid and late week.  Temperatures will start to warm back up by the weekend.

Severe threat:  None

October 16th-22nd:

Temperatures warming up a bit at the beginning of the week.  We will see slight chances for rain around Monday, then mainly dry for the next couple of days.  Warmer temperatures by Thursday and Friday with thunderstorm chances.

Severe threat:  Slight (Thursday & Friday)

 October 23rd-29th:

A cold start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  I think we will be mainly dry until rain chances by the weekend. 

Severe threat:  None

Halloween Outlook:

Right now it looks like cooling down with slight chances for rain right before or on Halloween.