KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSaturday Night & Sunday October 8th & 9th Update

Saturday Night & Sunday October 8th & 9th Update

Not much has changed since Doug's post below so I will not add much other than the showers you are seeing tonight on radar will stay off to our west. This high pressure system has been very slow to move east, but will slowly do so on Sunday and a few showers will be possible in our western most areas. Monday through Wednesday will be our better chances for rain. A nice cool down with Sunny skies will arrive just in time for next weekend. Doug continues with all the goodies and details below:

Good early Saturday morning everyone.  Well I am having a great 3 day weekend so far.  I have felt pretty good and got a lot done on Friday.  I got some errands ran and some work done.  Also I spent a ton of time with my son, he is the greatest little boy.   Ok like every parent I am bias, but the is such a great little kid.  I am looking forward to another daddy son day today. 

Well the weather continues to be great.  Now we do have a wave out to our west that is producing showers and thunderstorms to our west.  However, these will mainly stay west of the viewing area.  Here is a look at the radar below.

Current Radar:

We continue to watch this upper level wave out to our west.  Let me show you what I am looking at.

This trough out west of us is just having a hard time pushing east.  It will weaken and mainly push across the northern plains over the next several days.  What this will do for us is produce some clouds and maybe a few random showers.  As we work into early next week this wave will continue to weaken and get a little closer to us.  So the end result will be a few random showers, mainly on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.   

This wave will still pass to our north, but could give us some random showers on Monday and Tuesday.  Here is a look at where most of the rain will be.

I do think we could see some random showers.  However, this won't be enough to put a dent into our drought that we have been seeing across the region over the past few months.

We will see another wave that will give us chances for showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then temperatures will probably cool just a bit late in the week. 

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

 Remember that my theories are that the new 2011-2012 pattern is just about completely set.  I am currently working on finding what the new cycle length will be.  Because we will have another La Nina influence this year, I expect it to fall between 45-55 days.  I have some pretty good ideas of what the cycle could be, but I really need to watch this over the next several weeks.  As the next few weeks push on by, I will get a better and better idea of what the late fall and winter will be like.  Here is a look at the GFS upper level map for about a week and a half out.  Now this will most likely not be accurate, but I am showing it to you so you can see the changes in our weather pattern. 

This just shows that the Jet Stream is getting stronger and producing stronger waves and dipping farther south.  This is a very exciting sign for me to see.  We will start to see more storm systems and a wetter pattern as we work through the second half of the month.  This should start to cure my boredom, lol. 

Doug

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next Saturday:

Looks like temperatures will warm back up and we should be warm for temperatures.   

Severe threat:  None

 October 16th-22nd:

A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then I expect temperatures to drop off behind this system for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then temperatures will warm back up towards the weekend.  I think we will see chances for thunderstorms back into the forecast for the weekend.

Severe threat:  Slight (Sunday & Saturday)

October 23rd-29th:

A mild start to the week with chances for thunderstorms.  Then we could see a pretty good cold snap by mid week.  This is about the time that we see our average first frost across the area, we will see.  Temperatures will stay cool and it should be mainly dry the rest of the week.

Severe threat:  Slight (Sunday & Monday)

October 30th-November 5th:

A mild start to the week with rain chances right around Halloween.  Then temperatures cool off for the middle of the week.  We will warm up a bit as we work towards the week with rain chances returning.

Severe threat:  None