Wednesday PM OCtober 26th

Good evening, everyone. After scattered showers this morning, we're seeing the skies clear out in terms of cloud cover and most of our rain chances. The storm system that came through this morning is close enough to leave us with slight chances of showers tonight, but we'll generally see quiet skies as cooler air begins to filter back into the Four State Area.

Current Radar:

With some moisture trying to wrap around the center of the storm system, and another low skirting to our south tomorrow, we have to keep slight chances for rain showers overnight until 10 AM tomorrow morning. Here's how the surface features should stack up by noon tomorrow.

With high pressure moving in from the west, that will keep temperatures cool for the next few days before we start to warm things up again heading into the weekend and Halloween. At this point, Halloween is shaping up pretty well with highs near 70 and mostly sunny skies. Hey don't forget about the snowflake contest and the long range forecast below.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers, lows in the upper 30s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, highs in the middle 50s. 

Thursday Night:  Mostly clear skies, lows in the middle to upper 30s.   

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

So lets talk about the pattern.  I am pretty sure I have it figured out.  Remember my theories are that the pattern is completely set around the 2nd week of October.  Now I also believe that the pattern morphs from the old to the new from late July to about early October.  So I believe that I don't have to wait until the pattern is set to find out the new cycle length.  I found this pattern during the winter of 1999 when I was in college.  So from then till about 2008, I would wait until the pattern was set and then start watching it.  Once I would get through what I thought was the full cycle, then I would pinpoint down the cycle length.  So I was usually pretty set by about the middle of December.  This was a great thing for me.  From mid December until late Summer, I could long range forecast with great accuracy.  However, this wasn't good enough of me.  I wanted to find away to long range forecast 12 months of the year instead of about 7 months of the year.  I don't have it where I want it yet, but I feel like I can accurately forecast long range now about 11 months of the year.  Will I get to 12? Absolutely, but I have to continue to do my research on my theories.  So over the past few years I have been able to find the cycle length earlier and earlier.  Instead of mid December, it was November, then October.  I actually have it figured out now where I have a good idea what the new cycle is going to be by the end of September.  I test this for about a month and then I am rolling.  My goal is to make sure there is no gap from pattern to pattern with my long range forecasting.  After another successful early cycle find this year, I think next year I will have no gap and be able to accurately long range forecast all 12 months of the year. 

So lets talk about the cycle length.  This isn't 100%, but something that I have found works about 80% of the time.  My theories on my pattern are that La Nina and El Nino influence that pattern and cycle.  The cycle lengths have varied in the range of 41-74 days.  This is what I have found from looking back to 1952.  About 80% of the time, when we have a strong La Nina the cycle length is shorter.  When we have a strong El Nino, the cycle length is longer.  Last year was a pretty decent La Nina, and the cycle length was 50 days.  We have another La Nina this winter, but not as strong.  So my original thinking was we would most likely have a cycle length between 50-56 days.  I do believe I have the cycle length completely figured out.  We are right in the range that I have been thinking for about 4 weeks now.  I am actually very happy my research is paying off each and every year.  I found this years cycle length back in about the 3rd week of September.  So for the past 4 weeks I have been watching and testing it.  I am 99.9999999% sure that I have this nailed down.  So of course I am very excited.  Now my goal is to watch how this pattern reacts over the next month, now that it is fully in place.  I will make a winter forecast for you the week prior to Thanksgiving.  As you can tell, I am very excited to see what the next month brings to the area. 

The Snowflake Contest

Can you guess when the first inch of snow will occur at the Joplin airport.  The winner gets a 32" flat screen HDTV TV.  Promotions director Vance Lewis worked hard to get you a great price this years.  I am posting the rules below, make sure you follow them or your guess won't count.  Send my your guess by a facebook message or to my email at dheady@koamtv.com

I NEED THE DATE OF YOUR GUESS AND A TIME FOR A TIME BREAKER, THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING.  I NEED BOTH THESE THINGS.

"Snowfall" Contest

Official Rules

10/24/11

1                                                                                Saga Quad States Communications, LLC ("KOAM-TV") and Surtsey Media, LLC ("KFJX-TV") [the stations] will be conducting the "Snowfall" Contest [the contest] starting on or around October 24, 2011. No purchase is necessary to enter or win the contest. The contest will be conducted on-line.

2                                                                                The contest will begin with contestants predicting when the first measurable one-inch (1") snowfall will occur at the Joplin, MO Regional Airport--an official National Weather Service reporting station. Contestants must submit a specific date (for example: December 10, 2011). Entry should also include: Contestant's First and Last name, Current Address, day and Night time telephone numbers, date of birth, and a specific date contestant thinks one-inch (1") of snowfall (or more than one-inch) will occur. Once the first measurable snowfall has occurred, all entries with the correct date of the first measurable one-inch snowfall will be qualified. The date of the first measurable snowfall will be at the discretion of the stations Chief Meteorologist Doug Heady. The contest will conclude after the first "measurable snowfall" of the 2011-2012 winter weather season. The winter weather season is defined as November, 2011 through March, 2012, inclusive. Measurable snowfall is defined as the first one inch (1") of accumulated snow recorded at Joplin Regional Airport.

3                                                                                Contest winner will win a Sony® Bravia 32" LCD Digital Color Television, KDL-32BX320. Estimated retail value $395.00.

4                                                                                One entry per person.

5                                                                                Contestants may enter (1) Following the link from www.koamtv.com &/or www.fox14tv.com to the stations Chief Meteorologist Doug Heady facebook page, or (2) Posting directly to the stations Chief Meteorologist Doug Heady  facebook page, or (3) Via email to DHeady@koamtv.com or DHeady@fox14tv.com.  In the event more than one (1) contestant predicts the same date the stations will randomly draw from all qualified entries to select the contest winner. Or, in the event one-inch of measurable snowfall does not occur during the winter weather season the prize will remain in the possession of the stations.

6                                                                                Odds of winning are based upon the number of incoming entries, which cannot be determined at this time.

7                                                                                Contestants must live in the 14 county Designated Market Area (DMA) which includes the following counties: In Kansas; Woodson, Allen, Bourbon, Wilson, Neosho, Crawford, Labette, and Cherokee.  In Oklahoma; Ottawa. And in Missouri; Vernon, Barton, Jasper, Newton, and McDonald. Contestants who cannot prove residency within the DMA, or do not otherwise meet all eligibility requirements, will be disqualified and the prize will not be awarded.

8                                                                                Contest void where prohibited.

The stations reserve the right to disqualify any contestant in the event that contest rules have been violated. All winners must sign a release acknowledging that either KOAM-TV or KFJX-TV has the right to, without further authorization, reasonably use the winner's name, voice, photo (still or video), likeness 

 So get your guesses ready everyone.  I am going to make the deadline on this of November 20th.  If we get our first inch prior to that, then obviously the dead line is over, lol. 

Doug

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next Wednesday-Saturday:

Mild temperatures continue for Wednesday with a slight chance for storms.  Another chance for storms on Friday and then turning cooler over the weekend. 

Severe threat:  Slight(Friday)

November 6th-12th:

Temperatures warming up at the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Then cooling down for the middle of the week.  Our next system moves in by the weekend.

Severe threat:  Slight(Monday,Friday)

November 13th-19th:

A cool start to the week with rain chances.  Temperatures stay cold most of the week with a warming trend towards the weekend.  Slight chances for rain will return by Saturday.

Severe threat:  None

November 20th-26th:

Temperatures mild at the beginning of the week.  Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  We will turn cooler, so we will see if we can get wintry precip.  Then cold and mainly dry the rest of the week.

Severe threat:  None