KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSunday PM October 30th

Sunday PM October 30th

Good evening, Four States! We certainly know how to wrap up a good weekend, don't we? Plenty of sunshine with a few passing clouds and highs today in the middle 60s made it very pleasant to get out and about. We're looking at the nice weather to continue to start off the new work week and especially for Halloween, but the month of November will actually get off to quite a bumpy start. For now, here's where we stand...

Current Radar:

Up above is the surface map around noon on Monday. Not a lot going on for our area and with a weak high pressure to our southeast strong enough to bring us light winds out of the south, sunny skies and low winds will warm us up close to 70 for afternoon highs. For Trick or Treating, the forecast is great. It's actually one of the few good Halloween forecasts I can remember the entire time I've lived in Missouri. Clear skies to start off at 6 PM with temperatures near 64 and we'll cool off to 58 by the time our quest for candy comes to an end around 9 PM with a few passing clouds floating by. That frontal system off to our northwest will make its way in late Wednesday and into Thursday with cooler temperatures and good chances for much needed rain. We'll have a quick break on Friday before the next wave of showers and thunderstorms arrives for this upcoming Saturday.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies with lows around 37.

Halloween: Sunny skies with highs right around 69. 

Halloween Night:  Mostly clear skies and a milder night with lows in the upper 40s.   

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

Lets talk about the pattern.  I will continue to add to this over the next few days.  My theories are that my pattern is completely set.  This pattern I discovered back in college and have continued to develop over the past 12 years.  Once the pattern is set, the goal is to find the cycle length with in that pattern.  I have found away to find the cycle length before the pattern is even set.  So over the past 5 weeks, I have been testing this cycle length.  Now I won't give my winter forecast until the week before Thanksgiving.  I want to watch the new pattern for several weeks and get the best handle on it that I possibly can.  Now the cycle again this year will be very close to 50 days.  Remember we will have another La Nina influence.  Now that I have the cycle length completely figured out, I just have to figure out what the new pattern will do for the next several months.  My first thoughts are that we will see an active winter with numerous waves pushing through.  I still think the drought conditions to our west will continue.  They will see more precip this year compared to the last, but not enough to break the drought.  We will continue to see huge temperature swings into the beginning of winter.  I also think we have the chances to see a few big winter storms.  Right now I am thinking the winter should be at least at the average snowfall rate of 17" per  year if not more.  Also I think we have the chances for one or two ice storms.  This is something I will continue to fine-tune over the next 3 weeks before the official winter forecast comes out. 

The Snowflake Contest

Can you guess when the first inch of snow will occur at the Joplin airport.  The winner gets a 32" Sony flat screen HDTV TV.  Promotions director Vance Lewis worked hard to get you a great price this years.  I am posting the rules below, make sure you follow them or your guess won't count.  Send my your guess by a Facebook message or to my email at dheady@koamtv.com

You need to send me the date of your guess, the time of day.  The reason I need the time of day is because there will most likely be more than one person who guesses the winning day.  Also I need a contact number.  The deadline is 12am November 10th.  Get those guesses in.  

Doug

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

November 6th-12th:

A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday with mostly likely some rain by Wednesday.  Also cooler temperatures will work in with this storm system.  Temperatures will stay cool the rest of the week.

Severe threat:  None

November 13th-19th:

A mild start to the week with rain chances early in the week.  Another wave with colder temperatures and precip chances late in the week.  Cold temperatures for the weekend.

Severe threat:  None

November 20th-26th:

Cold start to the week, but warming up by the holiday with rain chances.  Precip chances will continue through the holiday weekend.

Severe threat:  None