KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgSunday PM November 20th

Sunday PM November 20th

Good Sunday evening, everyone. Well, the cold front that came through last night certainly packed quite a punch! After early morning highs in the lower 40s, we got stuck in the upper 30s for most of the day with cloudy skies and quite a bit of drizzle. Most of the drizzle isn't showing up on radar due to the droplet sizes being too small to be able to be detected by radar, but we have other areas of showers skirting around the area.

Current Radar:

 For your forecast tonight, I'm not in agreement with the models considering how poorly they handled the weather for today. I do agree with clouds sticking around, as well as the drizzle, for most areas tonight. Some stronger areas of showers are possible for 30% of the entire viewing area, but we'll primarily see cloudy skies and even some fog for the Four-State Area as you wake up tomorrow morning. Look for overnight lows to drop into the middle 30s.

For Monday, we'll be primarily quiet but cloudy with the brunt of the action staying off to our south. However, with the front still around the area and another low riding along the stationary front, we have to keep a 40% chance of rain throughout the day.

Our best chances for rain and thunderstorms really kick in Monday night and into Tuesday morning with the new low aiming to center itself over southwestern MO and northwestern AR. The rain chances will finally move out by lunchtime on Tuesday but it'll take until the evening for the cloud cover to take a hike.

Thanksgiving still looks really great with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower to middle 60s. However, Black Friday will bring in another chance for showers and thunderstorms in the evening with temperatures falling behind that system for the weekend. I am also watching another system that could bring a bit of wintry precip mix for the start of next week, but we're still ways away from that time. We're keeping an eye on that and we'll continue to let you all know what we think lies ahead for the Four-State Area.

Nick

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

Now I did want to talk about the pattern a bit.  I did my winter forecast earlier this week and I am still getting everything figured out.  Remember, this is a pattern that I found back in 1999.  I worked with another meteorologist(Gary Lezak) on this and have continued to develop it over the past 12 years.  My theories are that a pattern sets up around the beginning of October.  This pattern has a recurring cycle with in the pattern.  This pattern lasts for and entire year.  So by August, the pattern morphs from old to new with a two month process.  The recurring cycle also sets up in August and morphs from old to new during that time period.  I continue to do my research and make the best most accurate long range forecast for all of you.  So lets take a look.  Remember we are under a La Nina influence this year.  This usually means that the cycle length is between 45-55, which is one of our shorter cycles I have found from my research.  I have been pretty set on the cycle length since about September 24th.  I would go into how I find this with all of you, but it would bore you.  But my goal is to long range forecast with accuracy 12 months of the year.  I am at about 11 right now, so I am making good headway with my pattern.  So this years 2011-2012 pattern is still fairly new.  I want to show you what we have coming down the road.  Lets take a look at the GFS model projecting out to right after the holiday weekend.

Now this a model, so lets face and say that they aren't that accurate this far out.  But what I like to see is a trend with the cycle that we are in.  Remember that I have been saying for about 7 weeks now that our cycle will be very close to 50 days once again.  This is a trend that I see and is the start of what I see as an active stretch of a series of waves that will affect us.  This has occurred before, hints the recurring cycle.  At this stage we will be in the part of the pattern that was right after the first week of October.  So we will get into a series of waves through the beginning of December.  I also think we will see enough cold air coming south to give us chances for some wintry weather early in December.  So this is something I will watch closely and continue to update you on.  For now, have a great weekend.

Doug

Doug

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

Holiday weekend:

Our next storm system will give us rain chances from late Friday through Sunday.  But right now I think we will see fairly mild temperatures.

Severe threat:  None

November 27th-December 3rd:

Temps will probably be mild but dropping at the beginning of the week.  We are in the part of the pattern that a series of waves will be dropping out of the NW and rotating over or just south of us.  So we will see precip chances at the beginning of the week.  Temperatures mainly staying cool through the week.  Rain or snow chances return for Friday and Saturday.

Severe threat:  None

December 4th-10th:

Again I think it will be a fairly cool week.  Rain and snow chances at the beginning of the week.  Our next system will push in by the weekend.

Severe threat:  None