KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgBlack Friday 2011 Blog

Black Friday 2011 Blog

Good evening, everyone. Hopefully, everyone had a great Thanksgiving. It was my first Thanksgiving away from the family in St. Louis, but we had a pretty good dinner at the station last night and I had plenty to be thankful for. It also helps that two of your closest buds were a phone call away so we could catch up on life. Well, we had another warm day today with highs in the middle 60s again, but our weather will change quite a bit heading into tonight.

Current Radar:

Showers have been constantly trying to build in our Kansas counties for the past few hours, but they keep falling apart as they move east. However, a stronger line of showers and a few thunderstorms aren't far away. The line is pushing through the Wichita metro and it'll be in our neck of the woods starting around 11:00 PM. Until the line gets here, thick cloud cover and winds still out of the south ahead of the front will keep temperatures close to where they are right now. That means we'll hit our high temperatures in the middle 50s during the overnight hours.

The front will clear the area by lunchtime tomorrow, but the rain will stick around until 10 PM tomorrow night. The cloud cover won't budge until early Sunday morning, but the bigger story will be the winds turning out of the northwest. That will bring in much colder air and it looks to stick around for much of the upcoming week ahead. We'll see Saturday night's temperatures fall into the upper 20s and looking at highs in the middle 40s for Sunday.

I still agree with Doug's thoughts about this system and the weather further out below:

Then there is a lot of questions on what this system will do.  I will try not to confuse you here, lol.  This will sit and spin across the SE US for a few days.  We will see shots of cool air pushing in for early next week.  But the question is how much cold air.  That is something we will have to watch very closely.  This is the part of the pattern that we saw around October 12th and 13th.  This is right on schedule with my theories on this pattern that I continue to develop.  The bottom line is over the next two weeks, we will see numerous shots for cold air to invade the area.  Now the cycle length is still close to 50 days.  It will stretch just a bit over the next month, but it is close to 50 days.  This is one of our shorter cycles that we see, but very typical for a La Nina year.  Last  year was also a La Nina and the cycle length was 51 days.  I have been tracking this cycle length for the past 8 weeks.  We are actually in the 2nd cycle of this pattern.  But you have to remember the first cycle is a morph from the old to the new.  I will continue to update you on this.  Make sure you read the long range forecast below.  My theories are that you can find the cycle length in late September.  I have been able to do this and have been watching this now for several weeks.  So my long range forecast will continue to become more accurate over the next several weeks.  But I feel like I have a very good grasp on what is going to happen.

Nick

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

Wednesday 30th-Saturday 3rd:

Big questions on how cold will the temperatures be during the middle of the week.  Or will they be cool at all?  It all depends on where our system this weekend decides to cut-off, so something to watch closely.  So we will go with cool temperatures.  Temperatures will moderate a bit late in the week.  Our next system moves in on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

Severe threat:  None

December 4th-10th:

We will start the week with this weekend storm system.  This will give us rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Then we will stay cool through the beginning of the week.  Temperatures will warm a bit ahead of the next wave that should arrive around Thursday.  This will give us rain and snow chances with this system lasting into Saturday.

Severe threat:  None

December 11th-17th:

Temperatures warm up at the beginning of the week.  We will see our next system moving in early in the work week.  This will give us rain chances, but could go to wintry weather on the backside of this system.  By the middle of the week, we will be cool behind this system moving out.  Another weak wave will affect us late in the week.

Severe threat:  None

December 18th-24th:

Temperatures warm up early in the week ahead of our next storm system  This will give us rain and snow chances early in the work week.  We will cool down a bit behind this system and then warm again late in the week ahead of the next.  Our next wave is due in around the 23rd and 24th.  We will have to see if we have enough cold air to give us a white Christmas chance.

Severe threat:  None