KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgChristmas Eve 2011 Blog

Christmas Eve 2011 Blog

Merry Christmas Eve, everyone! The weather outside may not be frightful, but it certainly felt like winter with highs topping out in the middle to upper 40s today. We can't get any snow to make it a white Christmas but with clear skies and winds becoming calm tonight, it'll feel like Christmas with lows dropping back into the middle to upper 20s. We do have some interesting changes to kick off our final week of 2011... 

Current Radar:

Compared to last year, our Christmas will be very boring but still very nice. We'll have mostly sunny skies with clouds beginning to increase heading into Christmas night after highs climb into the upper 40s and even lower 50s in some locations. The increasing is the pre-cursor to the next upper level wave coming in from the southwest... 

As Doug pointed out yesterday, this system is not that impressive when it comes to how much moisture it has to work with. However, the low will be close enough to bring in plenty of clouds and some chances for precipitation. This system will have the same problem most of our systems have had the past few months... It just won't bring enough cold air to give us substantial snowfall. Temperatures will be cool enough by the time we head into Tuesday morning that any remaining precip will have some wet snow mixed in, but the majority of the precipitation for those who'll see it on Monday will primarily be rain. We actually spend most of next week above average in terms of temperatures with a few waves only bringing in occasional clouds. We'll climb into the middle 50s by midweek and close to 60 by Thursday with cold air working back into the area by New Year's Eve. To everyone celebrating tonight and tomorrow, Merry Christmas!!

Nick 

So lets talk about this years pattern.  We are in a pattern that set up back in early October.  With in the pattern there is a cycle length that set up in August and September.  Remember that I found this pattern back in 1999 and have been working and developing it ever since.  Gary Lezak(Chief Meteorologist in Kansas City) and I have worked on this pattern together now for years.  Gary and I have different beliefs on how the pattern sets up and how it works.  But once it is going we believe the core of our original beliefs.  After all of my years of research, I have learned so much more on this pattern and have continued to develop my theories.  But when I look at this years pattern, I find some interesting things.  First off there is an influence of La Nina this year.  This is just and influence, but it doesn't drive the pattern.  There are also other cycles and patterns that influence this pattern.  Over the past couple of winters we have had a negative AO(Arctic Oscillation).  What this does is allow strong arctic air to dive south.  So when the pattern interacts with this cold arctic air, we see big time wintry weather across the lower 48.  This years pattern is actually very active.  Just look how active and wet November and December have been.  However, there are two things really working against the 4-state area to see good winter storms this winter.  First off, the storm track for major systems is right on top of us.  Just like the big storm we have had this week, the upper level low tracks over us.  This produces all of the heavy snow back to our NW.  If we don't have cold air in place, then we just see a lot of rain like we got on Monday.  The other problem is the AO.  It is very positive and there are no indications of it going neutral or negative over the next month.  This means that we can't get that cold arctic air down into the lower 48.  So the end result is we see a lot rain. 

So what the rest of December, January, February and March?  The pattern will stay very active and we will get numerous waves rolling through the area.  But if the AO never becomes negative, it will be very hard to get much if any arctic air to dive south.  Now I do expect to see at least a two week period of colder and probably arctic air sometime in January or February.  Even with a positive AO, we usually see this happen at least one.  When that occurs, that will be our shot to see a decent winter storm.  Outside of that, most of our storms will be on the liquid side.  This is why I went for below average snowfall this year on my winter forecast a month ago.  I still think one or two decent storms will come together.  But it is going to be very hard to get the 4-state area much in the way of snow this winter.  So for now the snowfall contest continues.  For now we have a lot of waves that are producing rain.  For you winter lovers(me included) lets keep our fingers crossed and hope we can get a system or two to come together. 

Doug

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

New Years Eve:

Is looking pretty good.  We will see cool temperatures, but we should be dry. 

January 1st-7th:

A cool start to the year, but temperatures warming up with our next wave around Monday.  This is a weak wave and will give us slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Then a little cooler for mid week.  But warming up again late in the week with our next wave on Friday and Saturday with chances for rain. 

January 8th-14th:

A cool start to the week with a weak wave around Monday.  This will give us slight chances for rain or snow.  A bigger system will move in late in the week.  This will give us rain and snow chances on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

January 15th-21st:

Colder temperatures moving in for most of the week.  I think we will be dry until a wave affects us late in the week with rain or snow chances.