KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgDecember 26th Blog

December 26th Blog

Good evening, everyone. After quite a warm but nice holiday weekend, we are back into typical December weather with highs today only topping out around 42 degrees despite the deluge of clouds and rain across the area. Earlier this morning, we even had a few folks report that a little sleet was mixed in with the rain, but it certainly did not lead to anything frightful. Once we get the clouds and rain out tonight, we are headed for another warm weekend and a warm end to 2011... 

Current Radar:

The last of the remaining rain showers, as of 9:30 PM, is finally leaving our Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma counties and the cloud cover will follow them towards the exit as we head towards your Tuesday morning. After tonight, the final week of 2011 looks very quiet, but the big weather story for the week can be found in the upper levels of the atmosphere...

This is a map of the jet-stream at 300 millibars or 30,000 feet above our heads and where it's projected to be on Wednesday. The jet-stream is a good indicator of the overall temperature trend as we head into the final week. With the jet lifting up to the north over Kansas City and high pressure at the surface building in from the southwest, we'll see temperatures warm up into the 50s for midweek and high temperatures will be flirting with 60 degrees by Friday. We do start to cool back into the 50s for New Year's Weekend and I'm watching another system moving in by Monday. For the time being, it only wants to bring in more clouds and bring temperatures back to normal around the middle to upper 40s. However, as Doug has said in previous posts, January is shaping up to be a bit more active compared to this month. Keep it tuned here and we'll let you know what's on the horizon. Have a great night, everyone!

Nick 

So lets talk about this years pattern.  We are in a pattern that set up back in early October.  With in the pattern there is a cycle length that set up in August and September.  Remember that I found this pattern back in 1999 and have been working and developing it ever since.  Gary Lezak(Chief Meteorologist in Kansas City) and I have worked on this pattern together now for years.  Gary and I have different beliefs on how the pattern sets up and how it works.  But once it is going we believe the core of our original beliefs.  After all of my years of research, I have learned so much more on this pattern and have continued to develop my theories.  But when I look at this years pattern, I find some interesting things.  First off there is an influence of La Nina this year.  This is just and influence, but it doesn't drive the pattern.  There are also other cycles and patterns that influence this pattern.  Over the past couple of winters we have had a negative AO(Arctic Oscillation).  What this does is allow strong arctic air to dive south.  So when the pattern interacts with this cold arctic air, we see big time wintry weather across the lower 48.  This years pattern is actually very active.  Just look how active and wet November and December have been.  However, there are two things really working against the 4-state area to see good winter storms this winter.  First off, the storm track for major systems is right on top of us.  Just like the big storm we have had this week, the upper level low tracks over us.  This produces all of the heavy snow back to our NW.  If we don't have cold air in place, then we just see a lot of rain like we got on Monday.  The other problem is the AO.  It is very positive and there are no indications of it going neutral or negative over the next month.  This means that we can't get that cold arctic air down into the lower 48.  So the end result is we see a lot rain. 

So what the rest of December, January, February and March?  The pattern will stay very active and we will get numerous waves rolling through the area.  But if the AO never becomes negative, it will be very hard to get much if any arctic air to dive south.  Now I do expect to see at least a two week period of colder and probably arctic air sometime in January or February.  Even with a positive AO, we usually see this happen at least one.  When that occurs, that will be our shot to see a decent winter storm.  Outside of that, most of our storms will be on the liquid side.  This is why I went for below average snowfall this year on my winter forecast a month ago.  I still think one or two decent storms will come together.  But it is going to be very hard to get the 4-state area much in the way of snow this winter.  So for now the snowfall contest continues.  For now we have a lot of waves that are producing rain.  For you winter lovers(me included) lets keep our fingers crossed and hope we can get a system or two to come together. 

Doug

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

 LONG RANGE FORECAST

New Years Eve:

Is looking pretty good.  We will see cool temperatures, but we should be dry. 

January 1st-7th:

A cool start to the year, but temperatures warming up with our next wave around Monday.  This is a weak wave and will give us slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Then a little cooler for mid week.  But warming up again late in the week with our next wave on Friday and Saturday with chances for rain. 

January 8th-14th:

A cool start to the week with a weak wave around Monday.  This will give us slight chances for rain or snow.  A bigger system will move in late in the week.  This will give us rain and snow chances on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

January 15th-21st:

Colder temperatures moving in for most of the week.  I think we will be dry until a wave affects us late in the week with rain or snow chances.