KOAM TV 7 Joplin and PittsburgMonday January 2nd AM Blog

Monday January 2nd AM Blog

Happy 2012, everyone! Hopefully, everyone had a great time ringing in the New Year and got to enjoy a warm New Year's Eve before temperatures returned back to normal yesterday with highs in the upper 40s and a few locations topping out at 50. We'll have a much cooler day today thanks to northwesterly winds continuing to bring in cooler air, but it's another week where we have a little bit of something for everyone... 

Not much going on for us right now which you can see on the radar below.

Current Radar:

With high pressure in control, I'm not expecting anything in the way of rain, snow or any type of precipitation to cover our skies today. As a matter of fact, high pressure will prevent any moisture that's available from forming into clouds today. Sunny skies will be waiting for us as the sun rises after 7:00 AM, but northwest winds will only allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs today.

We have an upper-level shortwave moving through on Tuesday and Wednesday that'll bring partly sunny skies to the area. As that happens and as we head into Thursday and Friday, temperatures will warm back up again with highs ranging from around 50 degrees to 60 for Thursday and Friday. That warm-up will come ahead of the next cold front poised to move through for the weekend. It has only so much moisture to work with, so we only have slight chances of rain for Saturday and Sunday. With the front, we'll mostly deal with cloudy skies and temperatures falling back into the middle to upper 40s. As we head into next week, one system has captured my interest...

I'm keeping my eye on the potential upper-level low that wants to develop in the Desert Southwest as we head into next week. Based on how the jet stream is set up, it looks like if any precipitation comes our way, it'll bring rain to start as it works into the Four-States. However, as Doug noted in previous posts, January looks to finally bring in some Arctic air as we work into the month. We'll see later on down the line if this system could bring any wintry precipitation that could maybe give us our first area-wide snowfall for the season.

Nick

Here is your latest 7-day forecast.

 
Now for the winter lovers.  Will we see snow?  The 4-state area has never received less than about 2" on average across the region during the winter season.  So how could this season be that record breaker?  I don't think it will be.  I always talk about my pattern and what I think will happen down the road.  I still strongly think January we will get much colder air and at least one or two decent storms.  I can't imagine actually not getting some arctic air down into the region.  So for weeks I have been saying I think mid January will be the time that arctic gets into the region.  Now the long range models are picking up on this, so my confidence is growing.  I don't expect a wild winter.  But I surely don't expect us to go all winter without some snow.  We sit at about 1/4" so far at the Joplin airport, lol. 

I have started looking at the spring months as well.  You're not going to like this, but I am projecting a few big severe weather outbreaks.  I am taking the pattern and projecting it outward.  As we get into the next couple of months I will let you know the exact dates we need to watch out for severe weather in the months of April and May.  Maybe I will do this in the next week or two and you can write it down and test me, lol.  I am pretty confident though, lol.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Next weekend:

We do have a system moving in on Friday.  I still think it will be fairly weak, but we will have slight rain chances on Friday.  Then turning cooler over the weekend with slight rain chances again on Saturday.

January 8th-14th:

We will see an upper level wave whip out across the southern plains early in the week.  This will give us slight chances for rain or snow on about Monday.  Then temperatures will slowly warm up the rest of the week.  A much stronger system will affect us by late in the week.  Right now I am thinking rain chances on Thursday, but some possible winter weather for Friday and Saturday.  Also we should turn colder for the weekend. 

January 15th-21st:

This should be a fairly cold week for us.  We will see very slight chances for snow around Monday with a weak wave.  Then rain and snow chances return with another strong system by the weekend. 

January 22nd-28th:

A cold start to the week with a chance for some snow with the weekend storm system.  Then just mainly cold and dry most of the week.  We will see a weak wave with slight snow chances on Thursday.